
See Update below original postOriginal post: January 22, 2008
Bill Hunt’s ”My Two Cents“ column is a great place to go for reasoned opinions and thoughts. Unfortunately, Bill Hunt favors blu-ray. Regardless, Bill can be very fair and blanaced even in a column entitled “My Two Cents”Today bill posted some numbers and graphs which tell an interesting tale about the recent Warner-Offensive in the ongoing format war. These numbers show that the recent outselling of High Definition Movie hardware is tilted in favor of Blu-Ray. Prior to the Warner-Offensive (week ending Jan. 5, 2008) the numbers were, for all intents and purposes even, with BD leading by 1,000 units:
Blu-ray Disc - 15,257 units
HD-DVD - 14,558 units
Source
Note: Total combined January sales did not even equal the December sales gap of 40k units.
So Warner’s statement that its move was based on customer preference is just a small stretch, especially in light of the fact that at most we are talking about 4% of the market (need a cite!).
Most of the buzz around the offensive, however, occurred after Warner’s announcement. Many Blu-ray fanboys jumped at the chance to shout chants of glee as it appeared Blu-ray sales ratios were trouncing HD DVD player sales. The numbers don’t lie, HD DVD was knocked down:
Blu-ray Disc - 21,770 units
HD-DVD - 1,758 units
Source
Clearly HD DVD sales dropped as potential buyers of the format became frightened by the war dances of Blu-ray fanboys and forum posts (note: Bill at Digital Bits favors Blu-ray but he is not part of the aforementioned ‘fanboy’ group which populates Digg and other forums - Unless, of course, he participates in those groups anonymously - His site is a great source for info).
Importantly the lost HD DVD sales are not primarily going to Blu-ray. Blu-ray saw only a moderate increase in BD player sales of about 6,513 units sold, 15,257 to 21,770, while HD DVD lost 12,800 unit sales. This confirms my personal experience that most people are non-committal to any one format in light of the Warner-Offensive. I think that with the low HD DVD player prices we should see a bump in HD DVD hardware sales as people see the HD DVD player as a good upconverting player with HD DVD potential. The troubling fact is that the 16 year-old working at Best Buy has no clue.
Many focus on movie sales numbers, but hardware sales are key. 2008 will be an important year as the 2.0 Blu-ray spec will be released; will this cause owners to buy a spec 2.0 player? Will Blu-ray users update for 2.0 specs? Also, how will the triple-layer disc effect the market? Only time, sales numbers, and Shakira’s hips will tell.
Update January 24, 2008
From The Daily Game, NPD, the source of the numbers above, came out to clarify its statements. Specifically, that the sky is not falling on HD DVD like everyone predicted:
“As you may have seen, there are attempts being made to portray NPD’s weekly sales tracking figures for next generation DVD as a trend. We want to remind you and make clear that it is not accurate to make long term assumptions based on one week of sales — a cautionary point that NPD has made as well.
“The facts are that during the week that is being singled out, both Blu-ray disc players and software were being given away for free with the purchase of 1080p TVs. It is also important to note that the instant rebate promotions that had previously netted Toshiba’s players’ MSRPs to $199 and $249 had actually ended on Jan. 5th — causing an increase in HD DVD’s MSRP back to $299 and $399 during that same week. Since Toshiba’s retail price move on Jan. 13th to $149 / $199 — Toshiba is seeing very positive sales trends at retail. This reinforces the fact that price is a significant driver of sales.
“Toshiba’s HD DVD players represent a significant value to the consumer and the marketing campaign that just began is proving effective.”
Also, important to note, is that NPD does not track Amazon.com sales numbers which reflect that Toshiba’s A3 is ranked as the #22 sales item in electronics and the #1 selling DVD player and #1 selling HD DVD player. the only DVD player with a higher ranking is Philips 1080p upconverting DVD player.