HD DVD Opinion: What now Toshiba? Microsoft? HD DVD Downloads
The news hit hard yesterday afternoon. It was like getting dumped by the hottest girl in school. I am still not over it. I want to call her up and convince her to reconsider her horrible decision. Warner is that stipud little bitch and I can’t dwell on her decision any longer. I need to think about the future and why the battle with her other suitor (Blu-Ray) is a little shit disturber who does not love her … Rather than this about this I have considered the many reasons why the “war” is not over and how HD DVD can still make a stand. More importantly, how can I convince my wife to continue to purchase HD DVDs. Regardless, HD DVD is a completed format so I do not intend to buy a BD player until Sony says the spec is final.
This is not the death blow. Its pretty damn close, but there are still some studios on board and some major backers, like Microsoft - to say nothing of the hundreds of thousands of loyal early adopters. If Toshiba wants to keep HD DVD here is what it could do:
HD DVD Downloads
Regardless of the war the future is HD movie downloads. Microsoft has been moving towards this with XBOX and in fact offers HD movie rentals through its Xbox Live service (XBL). These ‘rentals’ however expire and do not offer the bonus features or audio that make HD DVD great.
Toshiba and Microsft could partner together to overcome this obstacle and make HD DVD downloads an acceptable reality. To start Microsoft and Toshiba could offer full HD DVD content with a Netflix type subscription model. Here is how it would work:
Toshiba and its partners could sell, at little margin, HD DVD burners for PCs and an XBOX 360 add on for dirt cheap prices ($199). Downloaders could then access a torrent based download service to download the 50Gig files - probably run by Microsoft. This service should be subscription based (like Zune and Netflix) and offer a value to the consumer; either $10-$15 a download or a monhtly subscription fee. The files would be secured either through a system similar to the Zune and iTunes systems, or some new system that only allows a limited number of burns. (This would be a necessary evil to keep the copyright owners on board). The the downloader can burn it to his/her value priced HD DVD media with his/her value priced HD DVD burner.
Access the Nerd/Geek Users
The key for HD DVD is penetration. If HD DVD can so penetrate the market with media readers and media, there is a very viable possibility that HD DVD can make a comeback - or, that is, - that BD will fade away.
Let’s face it, geeks and nerds drive technology. Geeks and nerds are cheap or are funded by their parents. If Toshiba can offer media and burners for PCs at prices which undercut BD there will be a swell of adoption by nerds. Also, if there are HD DVD burners in PCs, Nerds and lay users can use the media to burn HD videos. This will in turn drive movie sales. This model is based on the market penetration of DVDs.
Work with Blu-Ray, Abandon HDi
Toshiba has a completed standard, and, therefore, a better standard. Early on Toshiba and sony worked together to try and come up with one format and avoid a war. The talks fell apart when Microsoft and Toshiba insisted that the format utilize Microsoft’s HDi technology. Toshiba could abandon that stance and again work with Sony to develop a unified format.
Conclusions
Its all about price and value to the consumer and puffing to Sony. Sony sold more PS3 players. Clearly Sony considers the PS3 a Blu-Ray player first. HD DVD has sold more HD DVD players, not counting 360 addons, but apparently that does not matter. Also, HD DVD players are cheaper. Taking HD DVD out of the market is worse for the consumer. Having two formats battle right now is working to drive prices down. The only reason BD is viable is because gaming on the PS3 blows. If Toshiba can drive affordable media and players into the homes - like Sony did with the totally overpriced and shitty PS3 - then there is a fighting chance.
the future is undobtedly with HD downloads. Toshiba can speed up time and work with Microsoft right now to deliver HD downloads and burning. That, I think, is the best solution.
Until then, here are the relevant press releases/news posts
December 10, 2007, Warner DENIES any thought of going Exclusive Blu-Ray
January 4, 2008, Time Warner Press Release: Warner Goes Blu-Ray exclusive
January 4, 2007, Toshiba snaps back with Press Release - threatens lawsuit, says more sales
Warner deines a Sony payoff to go blu
Let me know what you think in the comments.
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7 Comments, Comment or Ping
Todd
dude, microsoft is not a supporter of hd-dvd as strong as you think… fact#1… the hd-dvd drive is an add-on for the 360 (like a blu-ray player could be later) as stated in the OXM magazine in an interview with some high ups at microsoft, **also sony games in BLURAY and xbox360 games in SD DVD**… Fact#2 there are more companies making blu ray players, burners and media over the companies that make HD DVD (BTW there are virtuallly no media available for reproduction or data storage for HD DVD) Fact#3 Toshiba paid their exclusive distributers $150 million for exclusivity Fact#4 As a form of media storage most tech geeks and computer builders load their computers with blu-ray for capacity(54Gb vs 30 Gb dual layer BD to HD) Fact#5 until Transformers, HD’s mpeg 4 format was grainy and horrible to look at, unconverting 1080p players play Transformers better than a good(if not Great) HD DVD player on the same hdtv set…
… freedom of opinion is great and important but if people don’t get both sides of the debate then its really just a blind side…
Jan 5th, 2008
Ken
Where do i begin, i never really liked the format wars, and i was behind blu-ray the whole time. But i’ll not go with the i told you so’s.
HD-DVD downloads: Huh, you’re joking right? The US has a bad enough rep with broadband access as it is, HD downloads will not make it, not until bandwidth problems are a thing of the past. Let’s say you have a HD download, you’re talking 15-25GB bare minimum 90% of HD DVD disks are 30GB DL (they need the space). At peak 6Mbps, 750KB/s, you’re talking about at least a 6 hour download. You could save alot BW by sending your HD content in 720p, but then you’re admittedly inferior to the rival format. Compression won’t work because it’s already highly compressed video. Case and point, without verizon FIOS at 20Mbps+, HD movie download simply won’t happen. People aren’t going to settle waiting for days for a movie to download when they can go to the store and get better quality.
Access to the PC Market: To little too late, blu-ray is perverse in the PC industry as it is, with 17 standalone PC drives, along with the 3 major PC manufactures in the nation HP, Dell, and Apple, with minor Sony and Acer, there is no market thrust for HD DVD, toshiba is the only real OEM, and there simply aren’t enough standalone drives or media.
Work with bluray: You’re kidding, sony would never let that happen. Sony thinks it has everything all wrapped up in a little bow, why scratch the whole deal and start over when they think they have a sure thing, which at this point, it all but is
Jan 6th, 2008
admin
Tood
Good points, Ill address each one with my opinion and we can keep the discussion open
Fact#1: The hd-dvd drive is an add-on for the 360 (like a blu-ray player could be later) as stated in the OXM magazine in an interview with some high ups at microsoft, **also sony games in BLURAY and xbox360 games in SD DVD**
>> You are correct, MS is doing a smart thing by playing as close to the fence as possible and not putting all its chips in the HD DVD camp. But it is tough to ignore the fact that MS has alot invested in HD DVD: HDi is a Microsft technology and that was the straw that broke the camels back when Sony and Toshiba were working to develop a common format.
I think it was a smart move for MS To make 360 games in DVD. DVDs presently have enough size for next gen gaming and is more affordable to code for and manufacture. Exhibit A: Sony is turning the PS3 into a BD player; Exhibit B: games on PS 3 are historically horrible and poor sellers; Exhibit C: More developers develop for the 360.
While HD DVD Is not a Microsft format and MS is not invested in it like it is XBL, it sure has a significant stake in it.
Fact#2 there are more companies making blu ray players, burners and media over the companies that make HD DVD (BTW there are virtuallly no media available for reproduction or data storage for HD DVD)
>>>And they are manufacturing an incomplete spec. **amazingly** despite this BD is getting no more studios on board. My point is that if Toshiba wants the format to remain relevant they need to move into PC and make their format more accessible than BD.
Fact#3 Toshiba paid their exclusive distributers $150 million for exclusivity
>>>So what?
Fact#4 As a form of media storage most tech geeks and computer builders load their computers with blu-ray for capacity(54Gb vs 30 Gb dual layer BD to HD).
>>>I understand, the incomplete BD spec has massive storage capabilities over HD DVD. Again, that’s my point - Toshiba needs to press harder to get into PCs.
Fact#5 until Transformers, HD’s mpeg 4 format was grainy and horrible to look at, unconverting 1080p players play Transformers better than a good(if not Great) HD DVD player on the same hdtv set…
>>> I can’t agree with you at all. HD DVD has always looked great. I have no idea how the release of Transfermers is going to make the format look better. Grand Prix, for instance, a 30 year old movie filmed in Cinerama looks and sound awesome, Miami Vice - released before Transformers was hardly grainy.
… freedom of opinion is great and important but if people don’t get both sides of the debate then its really just a blind side…
>>>Totally agree; thanks for your input!
Jan 6th, 2008
admin
Ken
Where there is a will there is a way. First, people who dont have broadband probably aren’t buyers of next gen media anyway, so they are not part of the market to hit. People who have a 360 have broadband and those users presently download HD movies to their 360s and wait whatever time it takes.
If Toshiba wants to remain relevant, going to downloads is the key. Otherwise, my domain is wasted!
Thanks for your input.
Jan 6th, 2008
Pete
So what if it takes 24 hours (being very liberal here) to download a movie? The turn around for a Netflix rental is still close to 5 days for most people.
Interview with Bill Gates at CES
(Q: Warner’s announcement backing Blu-ray high-definition DVDs suggests the death of the HD DVD format, which Microsoft has supported. What’s your reaction?
A: There has been a lot of back and forth. The announcement before that was Paramount putting exclusive support behind HD DVD. HD DVD did well over the holidays. The other trend we’re seeing is that direct download over broadband - I think the greatest example of that is XBox Live - (is) becoming an important choice. Over time, that will be the dominant way that people get their movies.)
This was Microsofts goal all along. Without Microsoft support Sony would potentially have buried Toshiba by now. Keeping Sony from dominating the High Definition market has left a window of opportunity for Microsoft to lead the world into the next evolution of High Definition media. Not Toshiba, Not Sony.
I’m pretty sure that Microsoft is the one company involved that has the least to lose and the most to gain if both HD DVD and Blu-ray dissolve.
So to make a long story short. Sony got Warner….so what? It’s all too little too late and Mr. Gates has played his hand well. Blu-ray and HD DVD are both dying formats. With Paramount and Universal still HD DVD and Blu-ray still not having a 2.0 player available that leaces Blu-ray still an incomplete format. 5 months left of Warner, another year left with Paramount…..unknown timing with Universal. My count is two years for Blu-ray to fully corner the market. Too late…..Bill Gates (Microsoft) knew what he was doing all along.
Jan 7th, 2008
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